Learning-by-catching: Uncertain invasive-species populations and the value of information

Abstract

This paper develops a model of invasive species control when the species’ population size is unknown. In the face of an uncertain population size, a resource manager’s species-control efforts provide two potential bene ts: (1) a direct bene t of possibly reducing the population of invasive species, and (2) an indirect bene t of information acquisition (due to learning about the population size, which reduces uncertainty). We provide a methodology that takes into account both of these bene ts, and show how optimal management decisions are altered in the presence of the indirect bene t of learning. We then apply this methodology to the case of controlling the Brown Treesnake (Boiga irregularis) on the island of Saipan. We nd that the indirect bene t—the value of information to reduce uncertainty—is likely to be quite large.